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United Nations
World Population Summary
Executive Summary
from www.un.org 2003
Among the key findings of the 2000 Revision are:
1. World population reached 6.1 billion in mid-2000 and is currently growing at an annual rate of 1.2 per cent, or 77 million people per year. Six countries account for half of this annual growth: India for 21 per cent; China for 12 per cent; Pakistan for 5 per cent; Nigeria for 4 per cent; Bangladesh for 4 per cent, and Indonesia for 3 per cent. By 2050, world population is expected to be between 7.9 billion (low variant) and 10.9 billion (high variant), with the medium variant producing 9.3 billion.
2. The population of more developed regions, currently 1.2 billion, is anticipated to change little during the next 50 years because fertility levels are expected to remain below replacement level1. However, by mid-century the populations of 39 countries are projected to be smaller than today (e.g., Japan and Germany 14 per cent smaller; Italy and Hungary 25 per cent smaller; and the Russian Federation, Georgia and Ukraine between 28 to 40 per cent smaller).
3. The population of the less developed regions is projected to rise steadily from 4.9 billion in 2000 to 8.2 billion in 2050 (medium variant). This projection assumes continuing declines in fertility; in the absence of such declines, the population of less developed regions would reach 11.9 billion instead of the projected 8.2 billion. Particularly rapid growth is expected among the group of 48 countries classified as least developed. Their population is expected to nearly triple between 2000 and 2050, passing from 658 million to 1.8 billion, despite the fact that their fertility is projected to decline markedly in the future.
4. The difference between the projected population in 2050 according to the 2000 Revision (9.3 billion) and that projected in the 1998 Revision (8.9 billion) is 413 million people. Higher future fertility levels projected for the 16 developing countries whose fertility has not yet shown signs of a sustained decline are responsible for 59 per cent of that difference. The somewhat higher recent fertility estimated in the 2000 Revision for several populous countries (e.g., Bangladesh, India and Nigeria) accounts for a further 32 per cent of that difference.
5. For 1995-2000, life expectancy at birth in the more developed regions is estimated to be 75 years. In the less developed regions, life expectancy was nearly 12 years lower, at 63 years. By 2050 the less developed regions are expected to attain a life expectancy of 75 years whereas in the more developed regions the projected level is 82 years, implying that the gap between the two groups may narrow.
6. The 2000 Revision indicates a worsening of the impact of the HIV/AIDS epidemic in terms of increased morbidity, mortality and population loss. During the next five years, for example, the number of excess deaths because of AIDS among the 45 most affected countries (up from the 34 considered in the 1998 Revision) is estimated at 15.5 million. Despite the devastating impact of the HIV/AIDS epidemic, the populations of the most affected countries are expected to be larger by mid-century than today. This is due to continuing high fertility in these countries. For the nine most affected countries in Africa (with HIV prevalence at or above 14 per cent), the population is projected to increase from 115 million in 2000 to 196 million in 2050. Even in Botswana, where HIV prevalence is 36 per cent or in Swaziland and Zimbabwe, where it is above 25 per cent, the population is projected to increase significantly between 2000 and 2050: by 37 per cent in Botswana, 148 per cent in Swaziland and 86 per cent in Zimbabwe. Only in South Africa, whose fertility is lower than that of Botswana or Zimbabwe, does the growth rate of the population become negative during 2010-2025, being positive thereafter.
7. Although the probability of being infected by HIV is assumed to decline significantly in the future (particularly after 2015), the long-term impact of the epidemic remains dire. For the 45 most affected countries, the expectation of life at birth for these countries has already been reduced by nearly 3 years. By 2015, expectation of life is projected to stand at 60 years, 5 years lower than it would have been in the absence of HIV/AIDS.
8. Globally the number of older persons (60 years or over) will more than triple, increasing from 606 million today to nearly 2 billion by 2050. The increase in the number of the oldest old (80 years or over) is expected to be even more marked, passing from 69 million in 2000 to 379 million in 2050, more than a five-fold increase.
9. The population aged 60 or over in the more developed regions constitutes today about 20 per cent of the population and by 2050, it will likely account for 33 per cent of the population. The older population of the more developed regions has already surpassed the child population (persons aged 0-14) and by 2050 there will be 2 older persons for every child. In the less developed regions, the proportion of the population aged 60 or over will rise from 8 per cent in 2000 to close to 20 per cent in 2050.
10. International migration is projected to remain high during the 21st century. The more developed regions are expected to continue being net receivers of international migrants, with an average gain of about 2 million per year over the next 50 years. Because of low fertility, this migration has a significant impact on population growth in the more developed regions. Without migration, the population of more developed regions as a whole would start declining in 2003 rather than in 2025, and by 2050 it would be 126 million less than the 1.18 billion projected under the assumption of continued migration.
1 Replacement-level fertility is the level necessary to ensure that the population replaces itself over the long run. For most populations, replacement is ensured with a fertility of 2.1 children per woman.