GRI Equity - integral investing

The following sections are delivered through Astraea. The links below will take you to those sections.

Perspective

The Power of the Future

The Futurist published Reinventing Humanity: The Future of Machine–Human Intelligence in March, an article by Ray Kurzweil describing what he calls the Singularity - the current critical mass of technology understanding that allows quantum leaps in science so that within one generation the technology of science fiction will be reality. It is an exciting and realistic scenario in which scientific understanding will leapfrog during the next 30 years to provide the capability to create a science fantasy infrastructure for humanity and the ability to resolve today's challenges of insufficient resources, eg water, clean air, food, jobs, etc.

Unfortunately, as with scientific developments during the past century, little accommodation is made for the proclivities of human nature, the need to develop humans in parallel so that we can manage the power of technology. It is no good having a nuclear bomb if you think it behaves like a toy. To paraphrase Scott Adams who stated the situation amusingly: "We are a species of inDUHviduals living in a world created by geniuses!" The results of the misuse of technology are the problems we read about and discuss daily: pollution, poverty, famine, terror and war, global warming and more. How much worse will the consequences of the misuse of technology be when that technology has evolved at a logarithmic pace? The educated people of the world are unable to control our primitive appetites and emotions. We are still subject to the primitive reactions of a creature that was designed to survive in the wild. Without a leapfrog advancement in the understanding and ethics of the global population, and especially the rich and powerful (ie you and us), we will no doubt face cataclysmic risks. It is time for people like Kurzweil to balance their passion for science with and investment in enlightening the human spirit. It is the responsibility of leaders like him to address global ethics in the same breath that they talk about science fantasy technology.

As before, the passion for new ideas has subjugated the nurturing of ethics that match the technology. When a scientist like Kurzweil expounds on the possibilities for future technology but gives no space to human values and ethics, we can expect the dichotomy to produce problems commensurate with the gap between ethics and technology. It is dangerous to talks about the possibilities of quantum technology without discussing how our values will change and our intellect develop to manage the power of the future.

Investment, Finance & V. C.

There is increasing coverage of China and India as the global economy becomes more integrated. The Economist published a survey of China in March which offers an up to date view of current issues and possible futures. We offer a word of caution about China to temper views: do not overestimate its market profitability (the challenges and idiosyncrasies will prove costly) and do not underestimate China's ability to resolve its challenges (its capacities and resources remain huge).

One barometer of China's potential and attraction is the urban/rural inequality that was a prominent theme at the National People's Congress. This growing imbalance, as rural communities get poorer while urban ones get rich, could be the catalyst for calls for democracy and for political change in China, and should be tackled before the problem gets blown out of control. While rural wealth can now be improved by central policy, if that does not happan soon, the unrest will become volatile. One solution would be to introduce land rights, which would provide the foundation of rural investment, but this would be contrary to the core of teh system. However, teh introduction of community land rights would go a long way to solving the problem and be within the spirit of teh current policy. It remains for someone to table proposals in this vein.

A serious concern remains the stability of the US financial markets. There are signs of deflation of a housing bubble, slowing consumer spending, and stock market volatility. On the housing front, which is a key in today's dynamic, sales of new homes fell 10.5% in February, the biggest decline in nearly nine years, while prices fell and the number of homes on the market rose to a record.

In the US, retail sales dropped in February as consumers reined in spending on cars, clothes and furniture because of cold weather. Sales fell 1.3% after jumping 2.9% in January, according to the Commerce Department. The data may indicate that US consumers, the main driver of the world's largest economy, have become more reluctant to spend after many years of splurging, but we should wait for more evidence of this which would be an uncharacteristic cultural change. The US current account deficit, the nation's broadest measure of trade, also was reported to have reached a record high in 2005. According to the Commerce Department, the shortfall, which includes trade figures as well as money flows, surged 20% to $804.9 billion last year., or 6.4% of the total value of the US economy. The imbalance in the current account may prompt problems, as investors try to limit their exposure to the US and a drop in asset values. US Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke warned persistent deficits need to be curbed, particularly as an ageing population will raise pressure on government spending. In a letter to Senator Robert Menendez, Bernanke said he was quite concerned about the "intermediate to long-term federal budget outlook" and US finances were expected to come under "severe pressure" as baby-boomers began to retire and collect their Social Security and Medicare benefits.

In the UK, retail sales also dropped again in March, the CBI has said, with sales down for the third month in a row. The dip in year-on-year sales in March was greater than expected and forecasts for April were no better, according to the CBI's distributive trades survey. Thirty-five percent of retailers reported lower sales volumes in March, while only 18% noted an improvement.

In the UK, supermarkets are facing a full investigation by the Competition Commission into their dominance of Britain's grocery market. The inquiry is set to be triggered by the Office of Fair Trading (OFT) after a further one month's consultation. The OFT was ordered by a tribunal to review a decision last year, when it decided not to launch an inquiry. Critics have accused the UK's leading supermarkets of driving local convenience stores out of business, which certainly seems to be the case from anecdotal evidence and statistics - the OFT said the big four supermarkets - Tesco, Asda, Sainsbury's and Morrisons - had built up their dominance of the food retailing business over the past six years. The OFT noted some features of the grocery market which it suspected may be distorting competition and harming consumers. In particular, it pointed to:

While these are probably issues it is also the case that, unfortunately, Tesco, the leader of the gang, is successful because it is so good at what it does! It gives people what they want - low prices on a full range of regular consumables focussing on a modest specification but also delivery higher quality options. Until consumers vote with their wallets for more choice, Tesco's oligopolistic position will continue. Personally we now try to shop locally because we have seen the local stores disappear and with them choice.

The price of gold has hit its highest level for 25 years, reaching nearly $ 600 an ounce. Gold is often considered a secure investment, sometimes more so than land because it is portable. Strong demand in India and China, coupled with declining gold output in South Africa - a key bullion producer - has stirred the shortage and is maintaining high prices according to Elmer Stewart, president and chief operating officer at Canadian firm Alhambra Resources. It appears that i nvestors believe that precious metals are a sound investment and could outperform stocks and bonds, however, at this level we do not expect that it can rise much further, and it certainly has room to fall in the medium term. Gold's performance mirrors rises by other precious metals and commodities. Silver saw its highest level in 22 years, while platinum reached an all-time high. Palladium hit $355.80 an ounce, before settling at $350.30, its highest in four years.

Responsible Investing

A new report, Translating Sustainable Development into Financial Valuation Measures - A Pilot Analytical Framework report explains how Sustainable development (SD), a business aspect traditionally viewed as “soft” by the financial community, can have a “hard”, material and calculable impact on share price and company value. Released as an initiative to advance the integration of SD considerations in investment decision-making, the tool seeks to isolate the effect of corporate SD practices on share price performance/company valuations, expressing this effect in financial language. For further information, please visit: http://www.sdeffect.com/

Asria has published useful reports that present country, company, and market information as well as case studies that support the following investment themes:

Taken together, the sector reports raise important questions about how to shape investment strategies, reflecting the range of risks and opportunities that sustainability analysis of Asian equities can highlight. This is particularly relevant for large cap investors versus those who favor innovative, small companies. It is also relevant for investors with strong country allocation disciplines. Taking Stock is available for free download from Asria. In addition to the full report, it is possible to download an introduction to the issues, a summary document, and individual sector reports.

Wal-Mart has made a high profile push into organics. The world’s leading retailer says that it aims to be the mass-market provider of organic food in the US. This is a welcome initiative and a sure sign that realignment of consumer values is taking place in a substantial way. Over the next few weeks the store will double its organic offer, putting in around 400 lines at its Supercenters and Neighborhood Markets.Wal-Mart has been eying up the $50 billion natural foods market for some time but has left its move until the organic food market had become established as a significant category in its own right, which it now obviously has done.

The first green investment to enter the FTSE All-Share Index in the UK is Impax Environmental Markets (IEM), an investment trust that holds small and mid-cap growth stocks active in global water, waste, and new energy markets.

Also, FTSE4Good, the UK-based SRI global index provider, just finished its semi-annual review of constituents, resulting in 19 deletions and more than twice as many (40) additions. The FTSE4Good philosophy is to set the bar for corporate social and environmental responsibility at an achievable level, then ratchet it up incrementally to promote progress toward sustainability. The majority of the deletions (18) are due to the environmental criteria (which FTSE4Good beefed up in 2002), with only a single deletion of Canada-based nickel producer Inco (ticker: N) due to human rights criteria (which FTSE4Good strengthened in 2003). Almost all (16) of the environmental deletions are US-based companies, a conspicuous geographic correlation. The US-based environmental deletions also cluster in three sectors. FTSE4Good removed four US travel and leisure companies--namely Cendant (CD), Darden Restaurants (DRI), Hilton Hotels (HLT), and Starwood Hotels and Resorts (HOT). FTSE4Good also removed five US retailers--Dollar General (DG), Federated Department Stores (FD), Lowe's (LOW), Nordstrom (JWN), and RadioShack (RSH). Five US finance companies have also been removed - Ambac Financial (ABK), Bear Stearns (BSC), Janus (JNS), Northern Trust (NTRS), and Washington Mutual (WM).

According to the latest report from Oekom research, a Munich-based socially responsible investment (SRI) rating firm, on the sustainability performance of global banks, most US banks fail to disclose enough information on their social and environmental performance to qualify for analysis, and only four of 21 analyzed earned above D-level grades. Coming in first with a B grade is Australia-based Westpac (ticker: WBC.AX), followed by five banks earning a B-: UK-based Northern Rock (NRK.L) and Lloyds TSB Group (LLOY.L), Switzerland-based UBS (UBS),Germany-based HVB Group (HVMGY.PK), and National Australia Bank (NAB). Of the 17 banks earning F grades because they did not even disclose enough information to qualify for oekom's in-depth analysis, 11 are based in the US. This number includes supposed sustainability leaders such as Goldman Sachs (GS), which trumpeted its new environmental policy, Merrill Lynch (MER), which issued a report on climate change in the auto sector, and Wells Fargo (WFC), which recently reported on alternative energy. Over half (six of 11) of the banks earning grades in the D range are US-based. Only four of the 49 banks earning C-level or higher grades are based in the US: Fannie Mae (FNM), Citigroup (C), and State Street (STT), which earned flats Cs, and JPMorgan Chase (JPM), which earned a C-. To burnish their corporate social responsibility (CSR) images, many banks have enlisted in voluntary sustainability initiatives such as the Equator Principles (EPs), a set of standards for project finance based on International Finance Corporation (IFC) guidelines. "However, the adoption of the Principles has not prevented several Equator Banks from financing some of the most environmentally and socially risky projects that have sought support from international project finance markets in recent years," states the report. "Prominent examples are the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline and the Nam Theun II dam in Laos. Consequently, observers have concluded that the Equator Principles are an insufficient response to the challenge of sustainable finance. Therefore, sector-specific guidelines for project finance in substantive areas such as forestry and paper, dams and hydropower, resource extraction and related infrastructure, as well as agriculture and fisheries were included in the study." Overall the picture is not attractive - it is difficult to find a bank that serves its customers and shareholders well and to higher standards. Perhaps it is time for new banking models, or expansion of emerging alternatives like member based and cooperative organisations. (One of the key themes at BeTheChange in early May will be Finance and the Planet led by Sir John Whitmore.)

The Body Shop’s founder Anita Roddick sold the retail chain for the £ 652 million sale to French cosmetics firm L’Oreal. But on the same day animal welfare groups were calling for a boycott of Body Shop stores because of L’Oreal’s continued use of animal testing. The Body Shop, which opened its first store in Brighton in 1976 and is now a global brand with over 2,000 outlets, was the prototype natural bodycare retailer. From the beginning it had a strong environmental and ethical stance (using recylable containers and avoiding ingredients that had been tested on animals). While the sale is of concern to consumers who do not want dilution of Body Shop prinicples, Roddick has pledged to donate the £118 million she received from the sale to Amnesty International and other “social justice charities” and Body Shop may prove to be the catalyst of change for L'Oreal to a natural beauty business. Nevertheless asRuth Rosselson editor of Ethical Consumer magazine notes, “It’s ironic that a company well-known for its animal testing stance should sell out to one that tests on animals and has yet to show its commitment to any ethical issues at all.” Meanwhile, analysts have been weighing up the effects of the sale on the natural and organic products sector. Organic Monitor predicts that Neal’s Yard Remedies is the most likely to capitalise on the Body Shop buy-out. “The company was bought by a private investor (Peter Kindersley) in December 2005 and with renewed investment Neal’s Yard could emerge as the natural alternative to the Body Shop.” The Body Shop sale could also prompt existing customers to start examining product ingredients more closely. Here, brands like Dr Hauschka and Weleda who highlight the traceability of their ingredients, could be beneficiaries adds Organic Monitor.

How companies engage in tax planning has become one of the emerging issues in corporate social responsibility and the debate has risen in recent months, among NGOs, regulators, the media, investors and businesses. Thinktank / consultancy Sustainability has now added a substantial contribution to this debate with its new publication 'Taxing Issues: Responsible business and tax', in which they propose a number of arguments having carried out a review of the growing body of literature. First, that there is a robust business case for responsible practices in regard to tax. Second, that there are key principles around the tax agenda, namely accountability, transparency and consistency. Thirdly, they have characterised five levels of how companies report on their approach to tax, running from a scale of compliance atthe low end, rising to 'integrated' at the high end.

Although not read yet, we noticed this recent release: Hard Facts, Dangerous Half-Truths and Total Nonsense which looks as though it should be useful tool for bringing discipline to the investment process, especially at the angel/VC end of the spectrum where individuals may be persuaded by a good marketing story unsupported by reality.

Wharton accounting professors Wayne Guay and John Core, and Stanford accounting professor David Larcker, have studied executive compensation and how it changes when excesses are reported in the press. Apparently there is little change When the Press Blasts Your CEO for Excess Compensation. What they conclude from their most recent research is that the most relevant information does not necessarily make headlines. They also find that in general, the media's focus on excessive compensation does not substantively change corporate behavior with regards to pay packages.

An intersting paper discussing business capital structure and Adizes lifestage model may be found here.

Venture Capital

It appears that the euphoric pursuit of deals in China by US companies has moderated slightly. The Chinese government is giving the cold shoulder to two multimillion-dollar buyouts being attempted by The Carlyle Group and Caterpillar. Regulators let it be known that they're not going to rubber stamp deals that would allow U.S. companies to take control of Chinese companies with strategic value to China. The Carlyle and Caterpillar deals are for two of China's largest construction equipment companies. China's Ministry of Commerce (MOFCOM) is refusing to approve the The Carlyle Group's purchase of China's Xuzhou Construction Machinery Group, China's largest producer of construction equipment. The move comes almost five months after Carlyle announced the buyout of 85% of the shares in the company and majority control of the firm in a much lauded $375 million leveraged buyout. (Xuzhou has had a joint venture with Caterpillar of the United States for over 10 years, under which Xuzhou manufactures a wide array of construction equipment in China in collaboration with Caterpillar.) China's Xiamen Xiagong Group has reportedly cancelled the buyout of its Xiamen Engineering Machinery subsidiary by Caterpillar due to concerns over the takeover of Chinese businesses by foreign interests. Xiamen Engineering, based in Xiamen, China, makes heavy construction equipment. Its parent company reportedly cancelled the deal two days after Caterpillar Chairman and CEO Jim Owens gave a major policy speech to the National Association of Manufacturers in which he discussed “the need for constructive and positive trade relations with China.” The blunt pronouncements by China's politicians against U.S. private equity firms comes shortly after U.S. lawmakers derailed part of the Dubai Ports acquisition of P&O Ports, which would have given Dubai control of six U.S. ports. It will be harder for U.S. senators and representatives to scream foul on behalf of Carlyle and Caterpillar after they beat their breasts about the dangers of foreign ownership of strategic U.S. assets last month.

Also, the buyout of Harbin Pharmaceutical Group, China's largest pharmaceutical maker, was stalled, ostensibly due to regulatory changes that went into effect at the beginning of the year. On the surface, everything may proceed afThere is increasing coverage of China and India as the global economy becomes more integrated. The Economist published a survey of China in March which offers an up to date view of current issues and possible futures. We offer a word of caution about China to temper views: do not overestimate its market profitability (the challenges and idiosyncrasies will prove costly) and do not underestimate China's ability to resolve its challenges (its capacities and resources remain huge).

One barometer of China's potential and attraction is the urban/rural inequality that was a prominent theme at the National People's Congress. This growing imbalance, as rural communities get poorer while urban ones get rich, could be the catalyst for calls for democracy and for political change in China, and should be tackled before the problem gets blown out of control. While rural wealth can now be improved by central policy, if that does not happen soon, the unrest will become volatile. One solution would be to introduce land rights, which would provide the foundation of rural investment, but this would be contrary to the core of the system. However, the introduction of community land rights would go a long way to solving the problem and be within the spirit of the current policy. It remains for someone to table proposals in this vein.

Responsible Investing

Asria has published useful reports that present country, company, and market information as well as case studies that support the following investment themes:

The Body Shop’s founder Anita Roddick sold the retail chain for the £ 652 million sale to French cosmetics firm L’Oreal. But on the same day animal welfare groups were calling for a boycott of Body Shop stores because of L’Oreal’s continued use of animal testing. The Body Shop, which opened its first store in Brighton in 1976 and is now a global brand with over 2,000 outlets, was the prototype natural bodycare retailer. From the beginning it had a strong environmental and ethical stance (using recyclable containers and avoiding ingredients that had been tested on animals). While the sale is of concern to consumers who do not want dilution of Body Shop principles, Roddick has pledged to donate the £118 million she received from the sale to Amnesty International and other “social justice charities” and Body Shop may prove to be the catalyst of change for L'Oreal to a natural beauty business. Nevertheless as Ruth Rosselson editor of Ethical Consumer magazine notes, “It’s ironic that a company well-known for its animal testing stance should sell out to one that tests on animals and has yet to show its commitment to any ethical issues at all.” Meanwhile, analysts have been weighing up the effects of the sale on the natural and organic products sector. Organic Monitor predicts that Neal’s Yard Remedies is the most likely to capitalise on the Body Shop buy-out. “The company was bought by a private investor (Peter Kindersley) in December 2005 and with renewed investment Neal’s Yard could emerge as the natural alternative to the Body Shop.” The Body Shop sale could also prompt existing customers to start examining product ingredients more closely. Here, brands like Dr Hauschka and Weleda who highlight the traceability of their ingredients, could be beneficiaries adds Organic Monitor.

How companies engage in tax planning has become one of the emerging issues in corporate social responsibility and the debate has risen in recent months, among NGOs, regulators, the media, investors and businesses. Thinktank / consultancy Sustainability has now added a substantial contribution to this debate with its new publication 'Taxing Issues: Responsible business and tax', in which they propose a number of arguments having carried out a review of the growing body of literature. First, that there is a robust business case for responsible practices in regard to tax. Second, that there are key principles around the tax agenda, namely accountability, transparency and consistency. Thirdly, they have characterised five levels of how companies report on their approach to tax, running from a scale of compliance at the low end, rising to 'integrated' at the high end.

Venture Capital

Research now shows 45 VC and PE funds being raised for investment in the Gulf Region. An educated guess predicts that the total amount raised by the funds will top $20 billion by the end of the year, which would be more PE fund-raising in the Middle East than in China and South East Asia combined!

Emergence Energy is an interesting project being started by Iqbal Quadir. It will apply Grameen principles to micro-power supply in Bangladesh and would have applications in many emerging markets. We hope to follow this business.

Clifford Chance, a UK-based corporate law firm, is considering the formation of a fund to co-invest alongside private equity clients. This seems to be an unusual departure from normal principles of law firms. Although we often ask legal advisors to provide their services for equity in early stage businesses, they invariably say "no".

We came across a useful country briefing site, www.doingbusiness.org, sponsored by the World Bank. It offers useful introduction to doing business in many markets around the world.

Interest Rates and Currencies

The US Federal Reserve raised interest rates again, by a quarter of a percentage point to 4.75%. The widely expected rise came at the end of the first interest rate meeting held by new Fed chairman Bernanke. The Fed said economic growth had "rebounded strongly", but left the door open for further rate increases as it tries to contain the risk of inflation. Commodities across the board are making new highs as indicated above, and oil is not going to drop soon. Rising commodity and energy prices, rising employment, rising capacity utilization, rising gold, and a growing world economy are certainly the conditions for the "potential to add to inflationary pressures." Rates have increased from 1% over the past 20 months and are now at their highest level since April 2001. But we expect further increases and it might touch 5.75% this year, pausing on its way in July/August. If the US economy was to suffer a set-back, such as continuing pressure on retail sales, a bursting housing bubble or uncertainty in financial markets, the outlook would change, but without signs of changing behaviour, rates are likely to continue to come back to historical levels.

In the UK, the consumer price index (CPI) inflation rose to 2.0% in February from 1.9% in January, hitting the Bank of England's target, mainly due to increased prices of items such as books, computer games and newspapers, and partly as a result of higher energy costs. The rate of headline Retail Price Index, which includes mortgage interest payments, remained unchanged at 2.4%.

Trade and FDI

The Progressive Policy Institute released a startling "Trade Fact of The Week": The U.S. collects more tariffs on Cambodian goods than on French goods.

Imports from France, January 2006: $2.89 billion	Imports from Cambodia, January 2006: $0.19 billion
Tariffs on French goods, January 2006: $29.0 million	Tariffs on Cambodian goods, January 2006: $30.4 million

The World Trade Organisation’s April 30 deadline to reach a framework agreement in the Doha development round has virtually expired. Such an agreement is essential if a final trade deal is to be struck by the end of the year. All parties must recognise that the time for posturing is over, that the hard decisions must be made now and that the US and the European Union must act in concert to save the talks. It is time for the transatlantic business community to come off the sidelines and engage directly with governments to help break the impasse. But the track record is dismal.

Recent distractions like the Boeing-Airbus dispute, the Dubai Ports World controversy, the threat that the US and France will begin to close their markets to foreign investment, and the vocal opposition to globalisation, take the focus away from the fact that trade plays an essential role in our globally integrated economy and is essential to sustain growth. For the EU and the US, a strong Doha round is an imperative. They are the world’s leading exporters of services and industrial goods. The economies are well positioned to benefit from increased trade but high industrial tariffs, non-tariff barriers, customs bottlenecks and restrictions on services imports and investments, especially in big emerging markets such as India and Brazil, limit this potential.

Meanwhile developing nations are forging their own ties. Brazil, India and South Africa are working to set up a free trade area they hope will eventually take in the continents they represent. The trio - known as IBSA and part of the G20 group of developing nations - has been frustrated by the WTO's lack of progress at breaking down trade barriers. The action is on a separate track from the WTO's continuing efforts to free trade between rich and poor nations. They agreed to strengthen their bargaining power at the WTO by boosting their trade links. Over the past two years, Brazil's trade with India has surged 170%, while its trade with South Africa has risen 86%. If a formal alliance is agreed, Brazilian foreign minister Celso Amorim expects trade to surge: "With a trilateral treaty, trade would multiply. It isn't unthinkable to dream of $14bn to $15bn in a few years' time."

Unfortunately, according to "Winners and Losers" by Sandra Polaski, a researcher with the Washington-based Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, the so-called Doha Development Round, which launched the current trade World Trade Organisation talks, will not actually generate development benefits for poor nations as initially promised. Developing nations are likely to end up being net losers under the current global trade agenda because they do not have the agricultural or industrial capability to compete with the United States, Japan, Europe or even China, the expected winners. "There are both net winners and net losers under different scenarios, and the poorest countries are among the net losers under all likely Doha scenarios," says the study. Critics of the 149-member World Trade Organisation (WTO) have long argued the same point, and the findings of the report bolster their position even as the world's richest nations aggressively pursue new markets. The 116-page study is based on unemployment models in developing countries that separate agricultural labour markets from urban unskilled labour markets. On the all-important question of agricultural goods, the study finds that because many poor nations are net food importers and rely on low-productivity, small-scale subsistence farming, which is generally not competitive in global markets, the benefits of agricultural trade liberalisation will flow overwhelmingly to rich countries. Developing countries will also lose relative advantages that now exist under preferential trade deals.

Joseph Stiglitz also published a summary of views in March: Social Justice and Global Trade. In it he explains some of the facts and theories behind the discontent. "The facts: Current economic arrangements disadvantage the poor. Tariff levels by the advanced industrial countries against the developing countries are four time higher than against the developed countries. The last round of trade negotiations, the Uruguay Round, actually left the poorest countries worse off. While the developing countries were forced to open up their markets and eliminate subsidies, the advanced developed countries continued to subsidize agriculture and kept trade barriers against those products which are central to the economies of the developing world."

Further, a paper, WTO, GMO and Total Spectrum Dominance by F. William Engdahl, shows how WTO rules put free-trade of agribusiness above national health concerns (as dangerously shown by the gradual lifting of bans on GMO in Europe under WTO pressure).

In the same vein, Oxford Analytics published a paper: Revived mercantilism strikes unevenly and promotes GM.

Go here for a WTO Update from Global Trade Watch.

Top

Activities, Books and Gatherings

March was hectic because spring is upon us in the garden, the river opened and has been busy, and we were advising on complex VC transactions. It has been fun and now all areas are coming down to a comfortable simmer.

Here are four additional futuring/forecasting links referred to above in Holonics:

European Monitoring Centre on Change: covers futures in a variety of sectors, including publishing, textiles, transportation, and, most recently, the performing arts.

Future Think’s "Snap Shots" innovation index: The Future Think team, led by CEO Lisa Bodell, provides succinct summaries of innovative strategies by various organizations as they
respond to ever-shifting trends.

Worldwatch Institute's Vital Signs Facts: Offers statistical snapshots of important trends in environment, resources, and global development.

Social Technologies: offer summaries of their forecasts and trend analyses to the public.

And just for some business fun try the McVideoGame ...

Again, in March, my extracurricular reading was restricted to Dr Pratchett. But The Last Continent proved to be great fun. Interestingly I noticed that the book jumps straight into quantum physics and time travel (re.: What The Bleep Do We Know!?) and was published in 1998 when I started to focus energy on understanding the Theory of Everything. Pratchett weaves brilliantly his satire through Australian caricature - enjoy the ride!

Ethical Markets TV sponsored by Hazel Henderson is up and running with a number of series broadcast already and some clips online.

We reported on Confessions of An Economic Hitman last year. Here is a video interview with the author. From 1971 to 1981 John Perkins was Chief Economist and Director of Economics and Regional Planning for Chas T. Main, an international consulting firm based in Boston, Massachusetts. In 2004 he published a best-selling memoir called "Confessions of an Economic Hitman," in which he describes his work at Main and the duplicitous means by which corporate America has prospered at the expense of many of the world's poorest nations. Covertly recruited by the US government and on the payroll of an international consulting firm, Perkins traveled to Indonesia, Panama, Ecuador, Colombia, Saudi Arabia, Iran and other nations of strategic importance to the US. His job involved implementing policies that promoted the interests of what Perkins calls America's "corporatocracy" (a coalition of government organizations, banks, multilaterals and private corporations), while at the same time professing to alleviate poverty.

We'll be at BeTheChange on 11 - 13 May and are looking forward to the opening session on Finance and the Planet. If you might be there, let us know.

Top

This report has been prepared for information purposes and is not an offer, or an invitation or solicitation to make an offer to buy or sell any securities. This report has not been made with regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation or the particular needs of any specific persons who may receive this report. It does not purport to be a complete description of the securities, markets or developments or any other material referred to herein. The information on which this report is based, has been obtained from publicly available sources and private sources which may have vested interests in the material referred to herein. Although GRI Equity and the distributors have no specific reasons for believing such information to be false, neither GRI Equity nor the distributors have independently verified such information and no representation or warranty is given that it is up-to-date, accurate and complete. GRI Equity, associates of GRI Equity, the distributors, and/or their affiliates and/or their directors, officers and employees may from time to time have a position in the securities mentioned in this report and may buy or sell securities described or recommended in this report. GRI Equity, associates of GRI Equity, the distributors, and/or their affiliates may provide investment banking services, or other services, for any company and/or affiliates or subsidiaries of such company whose securities are described or recommended in this report. Neither GRI Equity nor the distributors nor any of their affiliates and/or directors, officers and employees shall in any way be responsible or liable for any losses or damages whatsoever which any person may suffer or incur as a result of acting or otherwise relying upon anything stated or inferred in or omitted from this report.

archive signup credits

Private and Confidential

March 2006

Perspective

Investment, Finance & V. C.

Responsible Investing

Venture Capital

Responsible Investing

Venture Capital

Interest Rates and Currencies

Trade and FDI

Activities, Books and Gatherings